This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week and that I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week in his -800 gaming lineup. I’ll take that free square foot and proceed. He must dominate this battle and he can finish it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I would like to attempt to get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points from him. That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I didn’t think Jones would get a finish then maybe he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round fight, and I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be quite highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will kill off half the area because that would not be enough points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be from his wrestling. He’s among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He will not wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot takedowns right away and chain wrestle until he receives them. When he receives high control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he must take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A man like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that is what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the success.
Drama of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him becoming knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez would be the more likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A entry Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been filed. We must have underdogs within our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to pay up for those men like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he could grind a decision triumph here I presume he can become 10x that wages and if we could find a win against him in the cheap salary, I think we’ll be in line for that $50k win when we hit our other 5 spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the guy I need the least of. I try to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I think a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and that he actually does not have the one punch/kick power it would take to pull off. I would be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I had been making 20 or less lineups, then he’d be an easy fade.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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