This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite competitions to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots in that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will find a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest cash game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a solid flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At the cost she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other areas to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP drama of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 with this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this fight gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in one 10-point knock down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can not have a lot of time in the game left. I believe we role with the favorite here and toss him into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling possible. I believe he’s a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of both but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does remain standing since I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I’m certain that he is going to be going for much greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and that I believe he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the person I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, since she for sure can, and I think she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we would need a finish from her in this struggle to receive 10x that wages and I think that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she will need FightMetric to count all of her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points and that has been against Irene Aldana who sets a much greater rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still would not be enough here to place her at the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a triumph it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my select forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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