This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us with this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k belongs to 1st place, and there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games. With that said, let us get to some plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the background, in my view. I think he will be the fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he must predominate. I enjoy locking that win in my cash match and I think he has a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to become hot in tournaments so if you would like to fade the possession there and attempt to be more contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is demanding so that he can last all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque could score in the 80s which won’t win any GPPs. But, we can use an ~80-point triumph in money games because we just need to conquer half the field unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the odds. A little over a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the worth is currently on Ngannou in his $7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off near half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the more his gambling line reduces and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point flooring, so that I don’t care for him in money game, but for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt and get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he is only a +125 underdog. I believe he’s a fantastic shot of winning this fight and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close battle, but I think Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking at the greater pace and that’s what I believe gets it done for him on the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside but we don’t really require that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in all formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have a hard time seeing her about the 20k lineup at her wages. I enjoy the 9k range much more than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC debut, but that is because she did utilize grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this match because I presume Evans-Smith has got the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she is going to need to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it will create your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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